At today's price, Vistra's stock is pricing in about 11.3% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next ten years. Over the past five years, the company's actual revenue grew 10.1% a year — meaning the market is essentially betting on a continuation of the recent pace, not an acceleration.
At its current price, VST implies ~11.3% annual FCF growth for the next 10 years, discounted at 10%.
Vistra's actual 5-year revenue growth has averaged 10.1% a year.
Required growth vs. historical growth
Required growth from the reverse DCF below. Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA CAGRs from 10-K FY2025 (p.79, p.61) and FY2022 (p.69, for the 2021 baseline). Analyst consensus from web search (Simply Wall St, WallStreetZen, Aug 2026).
The 32.3% Adjusted EBITDA CAGR looks dramatic, but it's inflated by the low base effect right after 2021's Winter Storm Uri and by the Energy Harbor (2024) and Lotus (2025) acquisitions — not something organic growth alone is likely to repeat, which is why revenue CAGR (10.1%) is used as the more conservative comparison point.
Sensitivity: what if the discount rate moves?
| WACC | Required growth |
|---|---|
| 8% | 6.8% |
| 10% (base case) | 11.3% |
| 12% | 15.3% |
A 10% base-case discount rate reflects Vistra's status as a large, now investment-grade generation-and-retail company, though its earnings still swing significantly with commodity prices and weather — closer to 10% than the 9% used for the most stable large caps.
What would move this number
- Using 2025-only FCF ($1.318B) instead of the three-year (2023–2025) average ($2.527B) pushes the required growth rate sharply higher, to 20.2% — 2025's FCF was unusually depressed by a capex surge for nuclear expansion and the Lotus acquisition, sitting 47.8% below the three-year average and beyond the ±40% normalization threshold, which is why the three-year average is used as the base case instead.
- A 12% discount rate raises the required growth rate to 15.3%; an 8% rate lowers it to 6.8%.
- Analyst near-term revenue growth consensus (~7%) sits below the required 11.3% — the gap is being filled by the company's own 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance ($6.8B–$7.6B) and expectations around the Amazon/Meta nuclear power agreements.
Show your work
Inputs, sources, model assumptions, and the calculation
- Share price$148.13 — Yahoo Finance / stockanalysis.com, Aug 14, 2026 close
- Market cap$49.72B — stockanalysis.com
- Net debt$16.258B — total debt $17.043B minus cash $0.785B, 10-K FY2025 p.80
- Enterprise value$65.98B — market cap + net debt (calculated)
- FCF base (normalized, 3-year average)$2.527B — 2023 ($3.777B), 2024 ($2.485B), 2025 ($1.318B) averaged
- Discount rate (WACC)10% base case (8% / 12% tested) — large-cap generation/retail default
- Terminal growth rate2.5% — long-run GDP-level assumption
Normalization check: 2025's FCF ($1.318B) sits 47.8% below the three-year average ($2.527B), exceeding the ±40% threshold — driven by a one-time capex surge for nuclear expansion (Comanche Peak) and the Lotus acquisition, up 32% year over year ($2.078B → $2.752B). To avoid distortion, the three-year average is used as the base FCF instead of the latest year alone.
Model: free cash flow is assumed to grow at a constant annual rate g for 10 years, then at a 2.5% terminal rate thereafter, solved by bisection for the value of g that equates present value to today's enterprise value (market cap + net debt).
The fine print
- Change the discount rate, the FCF base, the projection window, or the terminal growth rate, and the answer moves — see the sensitivity table above.
- A reverse DCF shows what the market currently expects — it does not say what the stock is "worth."
- Whether 11.3% growth is realistic depends on how the Amazon and Meta nuclear power agreements, the Helix joint venture, and Texas regulatory dynamics actually play out — not on this math alone.
- Any investment decision, and its outcome, is your own responsibility.
Frequently asked questions
What growth rate does VST's stock price assume?
At today's price, Vistra's stock is pricing in about 11.3% annual free-cash-flow growth for the next ten years.
How does that compare to Vistra's actual growth?
Over the past five years, Vistra's actual revenue grew 10.1% a year — close to the ~11.3% the price requires, meaning the market is betting on roughly a continuation of the recent pace, not an acceleration.
What share price was used for this analysis?
This analysis used $148.13, as of Aug 14, 2026.