Over three years, American Express quietly swapped its self-description from an ESG-minded payments company into an 'AI-powered premium lifestyle brand' — losing market confidence midway through the pivot (late 2024 into early 2025), then winning it back once revenue growth reaccelerated to 11% in the second half of 2025.
The story
Late 2023: confidence at a peak
At the end of 2023, American Express was riding high. Management kept repeating "seven consecutive quarters of record results," and the business description's opening line was an emotional one: the company existed to "enrich lives." The ESG section of the same 10-K laid out a detailed three-pillar strategy — financial confidence, climate solutions, and diversity. In January 2024, the company issued its first formal guidance for the year: 9-11% revenue growth and EPS of $12.65-13.15.
A self-set target the company kept narrowly missing
Then revenue kept coming in just shy of the "double-digit growth" bar the company had set for itself. Analysts asked, in nearly every one of the twelve quarters we reviewed (Q3 FY2023 through Q2 FY2026), some version of "when does billings growth finally accelerate?" By the second half of 2024, the CEO himself conceded the company "needed to accelerate." Early 2025 brought tariff-driven macro uncertainty on top of that, and the earnings-call tone score in this series hit its low point (6/10, Q1 FY2025). Around the same time, the 10-K's ESG strategy paragraph quietly shifted from a confident pitch to a "we've completed our goals and are reviewing our approach" holding pattern.
The words changed before the results did
The opening line of the business description got rewritten twice over three years — from "enriching lives" (FY2023), to a neutral description of card-issuing, merchant-acquiring and network businesses (FY2024), to "a global payments and AI-powered premium lifestyle brand" (FY2025). The word "ESG" disappeared entirely from the FY2025 business section, replaced by a new fifth strategic pillar around generative AI, agentic commerce, and using technology to redesign customer and employee experience. In the risk factors, "fraud" was split out of the cybersecurity risk item into its own standalone item, and model/data risk moved up four places in priority. Yet guidance was never cut once in this period — it was raised at least four times: the target was consistently set low and then cleared.
The outlook management now sees is considerably brighter
In Q3 2025, revenue growth finally accelerated to 11%, the earnings-call tone score hit its high point in this series (9/10), and 2026 guidance was raised again to 9-10% revenue growth and EPS of $17.30-17.90. Since then, though, a pattern has repeated: results have kept beating the top of guidance, but management has raised revenue guidance while leaving EPS guidance unchanged — the CEO has gotten ahead of the question by explaining the company is reinvesting the upside back into the business.
Evidence: what disappeared, and what showed up
"Enriching lives" gets rewritten twice over three years
All three are the opening line of the business section — an emotional pitch, replaced by a neutral description, replaced again by an "AI-powered premium brand" rebrand.
The ESG strategy section: detailed in FY2023, gone by FY2025
By FY2025, the paragraph is gone entirely — "ESG" doesn't appear in the business section at all. Companies rarely delete their own selling points voluntarily; this is the most conspicuous retreat in the filings we reviewed.
Source: 10-K FY2023/FY2024/FY2025, each p.5.
New arrivals: generative AI, agentic commerce, and a fifth strategic pillar
FY2023/24 10-Ks don't mention AI or agentic commerce and describe "four strategic imperatives." FY2025 adds: "...uses for generative AI and the integration of our products and services in agentic commerce," and expands to "five strategic imperatives," with a new fifth pillar built around using technology to redesign the customer and employee experience.
Source: 10-K FY2025, p.2, p.5.
Risk factors reshuffled: fraud promoted, model risk moves up
In FY2023/24, fraud risk was folded into the cybersecurity risk item, and model risk ranked 24th of 33 items — behind tax, IP and climate items. In FY2025, fraud gets its own standalone item ("Fraudulent activity associated with our products and services could have a material adverse effect...") and model risk moves up to 20th of 34, its description expanded to cover "the data underlying it" as well.
Source: 10-K FY2025, p.30 (fraud), p.32 (model risk); FY2023/24, p.34.
Earnings-call tone, 12 quarters
This is a qualitative score (1-10) based on language in prepared remarks and Q&A — not a quantitative indicator — tracking relative confidence over time.
| Quarter | Score | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 FY2023 | 8 | |
| Q4 FY2023 | 8 | |
| Q1 FY2024 | 7 | |
| Q2 FY2024 | 8 | |
| Q3 FY2024 | 7 | |
| Q4 FY2024 | 7 | |
| Q1 FY2025 | 6 | Low point — tariff-driven uncertainty |
| Q2 FY2025 | 7 | |
| Q3 FY2025 | 9 | High point — revenue growth accelerates to 11% |
| Q4 FY2025 | 8 | |
| Q1 FY2026 | 8 | |
| Q2 FY2026 | 8 |
The most persistent theme: some version of "when does revenue growth finally hit the double-digit long-term target" came up almost every quarter for three years — a sign the market doubted that target's credibility for a long time. Only after Q3 2025's actual 11% growth did the question's framing flip to "why aren't you funneling the upside into EPS instead."
Guidance scorecard
| Call | Promised | Actual / status | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 FY23 (Jan '24) | Revenue growth 9-11%, EPS $12.65-13.15 | Revenue +10%, EPS $14.01 | Beat |
| Q1 FY24 | Guidance reaffirmed | Same | Beat |
| Q2 FY24 | EPS raised to $13.30-13.80 | EPS $14.01 | Beat |
| Q3 FY24 | EPS raised again to $13.75-14.05, revenue "about 9%" | Revenue +10%, EPS $14.01 | Met |
| Q4 FY24 (Jan '25) | FY2025: revenue 8-10%, EPS $15-15.50 | Revenue +10% ($72B), EPS $15.38 (+15%) | Met |
| Q1 FY25 | Guidance held (amid tariff uncertainty) | Same | Met |
| Q2 FY25 | Guidance reaffirmed | Same | Met |
| Q3 FY25 | Revenue 9-10%, EPS raised to $15.20-15.50 | Revenue +10%, EPS $15.38 | Met |
| Q4 FY25 (Jan '26) | FY2026: revenue 9-10%, EPS $17.30-17.90 | FY2026 in progress | In progress |
| Q1 FY26 | Guidance reaffirmed (despite 11% growth) | In progress | In progress |
| Q2 FY26 | Revenue raised to 10%, EPS held | In progress | In progress |
Guidance was never cut or withdrawn once across these twelve quarters, and was raised at least four times. The raises were always conservative (beat-and-raise style), and revenue growth itself only matched the company's stated "10%+ long-term target" starting in Q3 2025.
Source: Each quarter's earnings call transcript (roic.ai), Q3 FY2023-Q2 FY2026.
What we still don't know
- What specific regulatory issue the FY2024 10-K's one-off "risk-management uplift" language referred to isn't identifiable from the 10-K text alone — check separate regulatory disclosures or news coverage.
- Whether 2026 guidance (revenue 9-10%, EPS $17.30-17.90) is actually met can't be confirmed yet, since fiscal 2026 is still in progress.
- Whether the recent "raise revenue guidance, hold EPS guidance" pattern reflects margin pressure or a deliberate reinvestment choice needs a few more quarters of operating-margin data to confirm.
- The tone score is a qualitative judgment, not a quantitative indicator — treat it as a relative trend only.
Frequently asked questions
How has American Express's self-description changed?
American Express quietly swapped its self-description from an ESG-minded payments company into an 'AI-powered premium lifestyle brand' over three years, dropping ESG language from its filings entirely along the way.
Did American Express lose investor confidence during this shift?
Yes — confidence dipped midway through the pivot (late 2024 into early 2025) before recovering once revenue growth reaccelerated to 11% in the second half of 2025.
What sources does this analysis draw from?
This piece is built from American Express's 10-K filings for FY2023 through FY2025 and 12 quarters of earnings call transcripts from Q3 FY2023 to Q2 FY2026.